Post-Brexit UK exports could fall By $32 billion due to non-tariff measures and tariffs: UN Study

• The UK risks losing up to 14% of its exports to the EU in a “no-deal” Brexit
• Non-tariff measures would double losses from tariffs, estimated at 5%-7%
• In a no-deal scenario, Ireland’s exports to the UK are expected to drop 10% as a result of non-tariff measures and tariffs
• Mounting trade costs due to non-tariff measures and potentially rising tariffs would more than double the adverse economic effects of Brexit for the UK, the EU and developing countries

Geneva, 25 February 2020 - Non-tariff measures (NTMs) could cause major fractures in post-exit trade relations between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU), knocking up to US$32 billion, or 14 per cent, off of UK exports to the EU, according to a new UNCTAD study.

NTMs are policy measures other than ordinary customs tariffs that can potentially have an economic effect on international trade in goods, changing quantities traded, or prices, or both. They are the key factors mediating market access in the world economy.

Potential losses under a “no-deal” Brexit from tariffs that may be imposed by the respective parties are estimated at between $11.4 billion and $16 billion or 5-7% of current exports. The new study “Brexit beyond tariffs: The role of non-tariff measures and the impact on developing countries” says NTMs would double those losses.