Bahraini banks may require support if regional conflict arises

Bahraini banks could face a funding shortfall of $1.9 billion as of year-end 2025, in the event of a full-blown US-Iran conflict, threatening GCC stability and capital flows, according to recent analysis.  

The kingdom’s absolute funding shortfall, which will total 8% of its external assets after assumed haircuts, will be a steep decline from a $1.7 billion surplus in 2024, S&P Global said in it stress analysis report published on Tuesday. A haircut refers to a reduction applied to the value of an asset in percentage terms. 

Under a severe stress scenario where GCC lenders face external funding outflows, Bahraini lenders may require domestic or regional support.

The shortfall reflects Bahraini banks' “rising external debt and an increase in assumed haircuts on investment portfolios that results from high exposure to sovereign creditworthiness”, the report added. 

Qatari lenders have pared their funding shortfall compared with previous estimates, with the potential shortfall declining from $7.4 billion as of year-end 2024 to $4.4 billion as of year-end 2025. The financial gap is anticipated to be covered by its government, thus limiting its overall risk.

Banks in the UAE, Kuwait, and Oman, on contrast, maintain strong net external asset positions and are well placed to cope with outflows. This scenario extrapolates to Saudi lenders, too, despite rapidly rising external debt levels. Saudi banks witnessed a sharp rise in their net external debt, increasing fivefold to $54.6 billion at year-end 2025, from $9.1 billion at year-end 2024.

On balance, GCC lenders has been highly exposed to external debt outflows amid rising geopolitical risks and regional tensions since 2023. 

“We continue to view external debt outflows as a plausible risk under a severe stress scenario - particularly in the event of a prolonged conflict involving nonregional and regional actors and sustained, broad-based attacks,” the report added. 

In case of an escalation, GCC lenders may face external funding outflows that may equate to half of interbank liabilities, and 30% for non-resident deposits.

Lenders may liquidate their external positions to fund the outflows that could result in reduced assets valuations. Such liquidations could cause haircuts of 10% on interbank deposits and 20% on deposits held at head offices and branches. Furthermore, a reduction of 20% is possible on investment portfolios abroad, typically held for liquidity management; and 100% on loans to non-residents and other assets, the agency said. 

Qatari banks' net external debt stood at approximately $121 billion as of end November 2025, equalling about 32% of total domestic lending.

Non-resident deposits and interbank funding totaled $109 billion as of November end, constituting around 52% of banks’ external debt, according to S&P. 

“We consider this debt to be subject to the potential for outflows in the event of a significant spike in geopolitical risk. We note, however, that such outflows were limited when targets in Qatar were attacked by Iran and Israel in 2025, with about $3 billion of total outflows in each of August and October,” the rating agency said last month.