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OIC Economies
China overtakes West as the Gulf’s largest trading partner

China has surpassed the West to become the Gulf region’s largest trading partner.  

Gulf-China trade rose 14.2% to $257 billion in 2024, edging past Gulf’s combined trade with Western economies – comprising of the US, UK and the Eurozone - for the first time, according to a report published by think tank Asia House. 

That came as trade flows between the Gulf region and the West dipped around 4% to reach $256 billion. 

While the current gap between the Gulf’s trade flows with China vis-à-vis the West is narrow, it is expected to broaden to $75 billion by the year 2028. Gulf-China trade is projected to reach $375 billion the same year. 

“While the margin is narrow and there may be short-term fluctuations in the relative weight of these partners, particularly given the downward trend in oil prices in 2025, structural and fundamental factors overwhelmingly suggest Gulf-China trade will widen its lead over the West in the coming decade,” the report read. 

Gulf-Asia trade has grown by 40% over the last decade, from $368 billion in 2014 to a $516 billion in 2024. 

Gulf’s trade with emerging Asia also rose 14.4% in 2024 to $516 billion despite lower oil prices. Emerging Asia consists of 34 Asian economies, including China, India, and most ASEAN members, but excluding Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Australia, and New Zealand. 

Energy remains foundational to the GCC’s Asian pivot, with Asia expected to remain the world’s fastest-growing energy market through at least 2050.

The UAE is driving the Gulf’s trade with Asia, with the country’s trade with emerging Asia rising 27% in 2024 to $268 billion, driven by its comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) programme, SWF deployments and interest from Asian investors and businesses.

On a bilateral basis, the UAE-China corridor stood out in particular, with bilateral trade climbing 28% to $119 billion in 2024, overtaking UAE-West, which rose to nearly $110 billion. 

Two-way sovereign wealth interests 
Gulf-Asia financial interconnectivity has also developed in tandem, with Asia receiving 40% of the estimated $56 billion deployed by Gulf sovereign wealth funds in the first nine months of 2025.

Simultaneously, Asian financial services firms are expanding into the Gulf to capitalise on its expanding sovereign and private wealth pools. 

“Financial institutions on both sides of the corridor are preparing for a greater influx of capital in the future, with increasing collaboration between Asian and Gulf bourses,” the research suggested.  
 

Islamic Finance
UAE conducts first national transaction using Digital Dirham

The United Arab Emirates has completed its first government transaction using the Digital Dirham, marking a major step in the country’s push toward a fully integrated digital economy.

The pilot transaction was carried out jointly by the Ministry of Finance and the Dubai Department of Finance, in coordination with the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), the authorities announced on Tuesday.

According to Ahmed Ali Meftah, executive director of the central accounts sector at the Department of Finance, the transfer was executed through mBridge, a multi-central bank digital currency (CBDC) platform developed by the CBUAE. 

The Digital Dirham forms part of the CBUAE’s Financial Infrastructure Transformation Programme, designed to enhance payment systems and advance the UAE’s position as a hub for financial innovation.

The Digital Dirham initiative aligns with the UAE’s broader digital asset and payments strategy, which includes developing regulatory frameworks for stablecoins and digital currencies. Launched in March 2023, the central bank’s strategy requires stablecoins to be fully backed by high-quality liquid assets and subject to independent audits.

In a related development, Abu Dhabi entities IHC, ADQ, and First Abu Dhabi Bank announced plans in April to issue a dirham-backed stablecoin under CBUAE supervision.

Analysts say the move reflects the UAE’s efforts to provide regulatory clarity and infrastructure that supports institutional adoption of digital assets, key factors that could strengthen its position as a leader in financial innovation across the region.

Islamic Finance
Boursa Kuwait records net profit rise, as trading volumes grow  

Boursa Kuwait, has reported a 59.81% year-on-year rise in net profit for the first nine months of the year. 

Boursa Kuwait, which operates the Kuwait Stock Exchange, reported $75 million (23.05 million Kuwaiti dinars) in net profit from January through the end of September, compared to $46.94 (14.43 million Kuwaiti dinars) from a prior-year period. 

Operating revenues rose 41.45% year-on-year to $120.5 million (37.06 million Kuwaiti dinars) between Q1-Q3, up from $85.2 million (26.20 million Kuwaiti dinars). 

Total traded value climbed 89.73% to 19.35 billion Kuwaiti dinars in the period ending September 30. Traded volume mirrored the surge, increasing 92.17% to reach 84.23 billion shares. Average daily traded value also rose 91.82%.  

Market capitalization reached 52.61 billion Kuwaiti dinars in the nine months through September, up 24.67% from 42.20 billion Kuwaiti dinars.  

Mohammed Saud Al-Osaimi, Boursa Kuwait CEO, said that the results of the Kuwaiti capital market reflect the tangible impact of the operational and regulatory reforms implemented by Boursa Kuwait and the broader market apparatus. 

Earnings per share surged from 71.85 fils to 114.82 fils during the first nine months of the year. The group’s total assets stood at 132.96 million Kuwaiti dinars as of September 30, up 11.74% compared to 118.99 million Kuwaiti dinar in 2024.

“Boursa Kuwait continues to play a pivotal role in the transformation of Kuwait’s capital market and the development of an integrated financial ecosystem,” said Bader Nasser Al-Kharafi, chairman of Boursa Kuwait. 

“By continuously advancing market infrastructure, enhancing efficiency and transparency, and aligning with international best practices, the company aims to foster an attractive investment environment.”

Boursa Kuwait’s premier market segment recorded a 49.82% year-on-year rise in traded value and 44.61% growth in traded volume. Firms are required to have a free float amount of 45 million Kuwaiti dinars, a seven-year operating history, and a round lot of 450 shareholders with a share value of 10,000 Kuwaiti dinars each to list on the premier segment.

Traded value in the main market surged by 191.32%, accompanied by a 136.38% rise in traded volume.

Boursa Kuwait has eased its listing requirements for the main market segment, decreasing the minimum fair value of freely traded shares not owned by the controlling shareholder group from 15 million to 5 million Kuwaiti dinars. Free-float shares must, however, represent at least 20% of total capital.

A consortium of Kuwaiti investment companies and a global exchange operator acquired 44% in Boursa Kuwait in February 2019. Capital Markets Authority offered its 50% stake in the bourse to Kuwaiti citizens in December 2019. 
 

Halal Industry
Colombia secures halal certification to export coffee and cocoa to Arab markets

Colombia has obtained halal certification for its coffee and cocoa exports, paving the way for broader access to Muslim-majority markets, President Gustavo Petro announced during a visit to Riyadh on the first leg of his Middle East tour.

“This certification will allow peasant farmers and their cooperatives to trade their coffee production directly with the Arab world,” Petro said in a post on X, adding that the move supports government efforts to shift rural economies away from illicit coca cultivation.

The certification, granted under Islamic dietary and production standards, is intended to remove barriers for Colombian exporters in markets where halal compliance is mandatory for food imports. It also aligns with the government’s strategy to diversify export destinations beyond the United States, Colombia’s primary trading partner for more than a century.

Industry reaction, however, has been mixed. The National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) noted that Colombia already ships coffee to several Middle Eastern countries and that the certification will not dramatically alter current trade flows for all producers. According to federation data, Colombia exported 56,234 bags of coffee to Saudi Arabia in 2023 and 118,992 bags in 2024 without halal requirements applying in every case.

The certification is expected to have greater impact on processed and value-added coffee and cocoa products, which face stricter entry conditions than unprocessed green beans. Meeting Halal standards requires alignment across the supply chain, including farming practices, processing, packaging and documentation.

Colombia is the world’s third-largest coffee producer and sees cocoa as a growing export sector with potential for higher-margin products. Government officials are of the view that halal compliance will help small and medium-sized producers compete in new markets and reduce dependence on a limited set of buyers.

The announcement follows a period of renewed diplomatic engagement between Colombia and Gulf countries, with Petro scheduled to visit Egypt and Qatar after Saudi Arabia. The government has framed the certification as part of a wider push to expand trade ties beyond traditional Western markets amid shifting global demand and trade pressures.

While the certification does not guarantee immediate export increases, it formalizes access to a fast-growing consumer base and positions Colombia to pursue longer-term trade agreements in the region.

Islamic Finance
Malaysia launches roadmap to test blockchain-based asset tokenization

Bank Negara Malaysia has launched a three-year initiative to test how blockchain-based asset tokenization can be used to modernize key aspects of the country’s financial system, including SME financing and Islamic capital markets. The plan, announced a couple of days ago, builds on the central bank’s existing Digital Asset Innovation Hub and will run through 2027.

The program will involve banks, fintech firms and blockchain developers working within a regulated sandbox to pilot real-world use cases. “This is not about adopting technology for its own sake. Each project must show clear economic value,” the central bank said in its discussion paper outlining the roadmap.

The initiative focuses on solving structural challenges such as Malaysia’s RM101 billion ($21.5 billion) SME financing gap, where smaller firms often struggle to secure credit despite strong demand. Under one proposed model, large companies would issue tokenized invoice receivables that smaller suppliers could use as collateral or payment, accelerating cash flow and reducing settlement delays.

A second area of testing will explore tokenized sukuk and other Islamic finance instruments, using smart contracts to automate payments while remaining Shariah-compliant. The roadmap also includes pilots for ESG-linked assets, where payouts would be tied to verifiable environmental metrics to prevent greenwashing.

The central bank said tokenization projects will be assessed against three criteria: measurable real-world benefit, a clear advantage over traditional systems, and technical feasibility using current infrastructure. Pilot projects are expected in 2026, followed by wider trials in 2027. An industry working group co-led with the Securities Commission will oversee development and regulatory coordination.

Malaysia joins a growing group of Asian regulators testing tokenized finance, including Singapore’s "Project Guardian" and Hong Kong’s "Project Ensemble". However, Bank Negara Malaysia reiterated that cryptocurrencies remain outside the scope of the initiative and are not recognized as legal tender due to volatility risks.

Only licensed financial institutions will be allowed to participate in pilots, with early testing restricted to familiar assets such as deposits, loans and bonds, before expanding into more complex instruments. The central bank is accepting feedback on its tokenization paper until March 1, 2026.

If the roadmap advances as planned, tokenized financial products could begin rolling out across Malaysia’s regulated markets from 2027 onward.

Islamic Finance
Saudi Arabia opens subscription for November ‘Sah’ savings sukuk at 4.71% profit rate

Saudi Arabia has opened subscriptions for its November issuance of the government-backed “Sah” savings sukuk, offering investors an annual return of 4.71%, slightly lower than the 4.83% rate set in October, the National Debt Management Center (NDMC) announced.

The subscription window runs until 3 p.m. on November 4, according to an NDMC statement posted on X. The sukuk is part of the government’s 2025 issuance calendar and forms a key component of wider efforts to expand savings and deepen retail participation in the domestic debt market.

The one-year sukuk offers fixed returns paid at maturity, with a minimum subscription of 1,000 Saudi riyals ($266) and a maximum of 200,000 Saudi riyals per investor. Subscriptions are open to Saudi nationals aged 18 and over through approved digital investment platforms, including SNB Capital, Aljazira Capital, Alinma Investment, SAB Invest, and Al-Rajhi Capital.

The Sah program was launched under Vision 2030, which aims to increase Saudi Arabia’s household savings rate from about 6% to 10% by 2030.

The initiative comes as sukuk continues to represent a growing share of the Kingdom’s funding strategy. In October, the NDMC raised 7.54 billion Saudi riyals ($2.01 billion) through its regular riyal-denominated sukuk program, issued across four tranches with maturities between 2029 and 2039.

Saudi Arabia remains the GCC’s most active issuer in the fixed-income market. According to the Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz), the Kingdom raised $20.32 billion through 36 debt issuances in the third quarter of 2025, representing a 62.7% year-on-year increase.

S&P Global has previously noted that steady sukuk issuance, combined with growth in the non-oil economy, is expected to support the continued expansion of the global Islamic finance sector.

OIC Economies
Saudi economy swells 5% in third quarter

Saudi Arabia’s economy grew 5% in the third quarter of the year, due to all-round growth in oil and non-oil activities. 

Oil activities were the main driver powering the kingdom seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP) through the July-September period, growing 8.2% year-on-year, according to flash estimates issued by Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT). Seasonally adjusted real GDP grew 1.4% quarter-on-quarter. 

However, non-oil activities drove real GDP growth, rising 4.5%, and contributing 2.6 percentage points. This was accompanied by a 1.8% rise in government activities. 

The kingdom’s economy is expected to expand 4% this and next year, the International Monetary Fund said in its October regional economic outlook. Last month’s projections represent a 1.0 and 0.3 percentage point upward revision from April for 2025 and 2026, respectively. 

The fund also raised its growth projections for the MENA region in October, expected to grow 3.3% in 2025 against its April forecast of 2.6%. The region’s GDP will expand 3.7% next year, opposed to 3.4% estimated in April’s regional economic outlook.  

Saudi Arabia is expected to record $44.2 billion in fiscal deficit for next year, estimated at 3.3% of the kingdom’s GDP.

The kingdom has been running on budget deficits since 2022, as reduced oil prices compress revenues. Brent crude, which serves as a benchmark for roughly two-third of the world’s crude oil supplies, dipped 15% since the beginning of the year. 

The fund did not publish breakeven oil prices in its October regional outlook but said in April that the kingdom needs oil north of $92 per barrel to balance its books. 

Fitch Ratings reaffirmed Saudi Arabia’s credit rating at ‘A+’, with a stable outlook in August.  
 


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