Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit in the fourth quarter grew to its highest in five years, as reduced oil prices continue to weigh on state revenues. 

The kingdom's fourth quarter budget deficit rose to $25.3 billion (94.9 billion Saudi riyals) from $23.6 billion (88.5 billion Saudi riyals) recorded during the previous quarter and $15.3 billion (57.6 billion Saudi riyals) posted in the fourth quarter of 2024. 

The budget deficit brought the year’s total shortfall to $73.6 billion (276 billion Saudi riyals), which Riyadh has entirely funded through borrowing.  

Fourth quarter revenues slid to $41 billion (154 billion Saudi riyals) from $45.6 billion (171 billion Saudi riyals) recorded during a year-earlier period.

Oil and non-oil revenues rose over the previous quarter but dipped on an annual basis. Oil revenues slid 10% year-on-year to $41.1 billion (154.2 billion riyals) in the fourth quarter of 2025, alongside non-oil revenues which fell 7% to $32.7 billion (122.6 billion Saudi riyals).

Expenditures rose a nominal 3% over the previous year, with compensation to employees constituting up two-fifth, according to data shared by the Ministry of Finance.

“With oil prices well below the estimated fiscal breakeven level, Saudi Arabia has ramped up borrowing in international debt markets and diversified its funding sources, while also reassessing the pace and scale of major Vision 2030 projects to prioritize efficiency and private sector participation,” the MUFG report read.  

“While officials expect the deficit narrow to 3.3% of GDP this year, investors anticipate it will remain higher, reflecting persistent spending pressures and a challenging oil revenue environment.”  

The kingdom has been running budget deficits since 2022, as reduced oil revenues strain public finances. Brent crude, which serves as a benchmark for roughly two-thirds of the world's crude oil supplies, is hovering around $71 per against the backdrop of a substantial American military buildup in the Middle East. 

Saudi Arabia needs oil to be north of $92 per barrel this year and at $86.6 per barrel in 2026 to balance its books, according to the IMF. 
 

The third edition of the Makkah Halal Forum concluded with the signing of 15 cooperation agreements aimed at strengthening international collaboration, harmonising halal standards, and improving product quality and certification systems across the global halal industry.

Held at the Makkah Chamber of Commerce and Industry Exhibition and Events Center, the three-day forum brought together government representatives, industry leaders and experts to discuss regulatory alignment, trade development and investment opportunities within the halal economy.

Organisers said the event reflected a shift toward a more outcomes-focused platform, moving beyond dialogue to support practical initiatives designed to enhance economic integration and reinforce trust in halal certification frameworks.

The forum attracted thousands of participants and featured 170 exhibitors from 15 countries showcasing products, services and innovations spanning the halal value chain, including food, logistics, certification, technology and related sectors.

In its closing recommendations, participants emphasised the importance of developing the halal sector as an integrated global system that combines ethical standards with economic growth. Key priorities included strengthening transparency, promoting standardisation, encouraging knowledge exchange, and supporting sustainable industry development.

The recommendations align with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 objectives, which include expanding the Kingdom’s role in global halal markets and attracting investment into innovation-driven sectors.

Qatar Chamber and the Islamic Chamber of Commerce and Development (ICCD) have signed an agreement to establish a digital platform for halal products, aimed at improving transparency, traceability and trade facilitation across the global halal ecosystem.

The agreement was signed on the sidelines of the 41st General Assembly meeting of the Islamic Chamber of Commerce and Development and the Makkah Halal Forum, held in Makkah.

According to Sheikh Khalifa bin Jassim bin Mohamed Al-Thani, chairman of Qatar Chamber, the initiative reflects the growing efforts to strengthen digital infrastructure within the halal sector and enhance international cooperation among Islamic economies. He further noted that transforming halal systems into strategic economic tools could reinforce the GCC’s position as a regional and global hub while supporting diversification and food security goals.

Sheikh Khalifa stated that collaboration between chambers of commerce across Islamic countries would help harmonise standards and specifications, increase confidence in halal products, and enhance governance and transparency throughout the industry.

During the General Assembly meeting, members reviewed progress on implementing decisions from the previous session, elected board members for the new term, and approved the appointment of a new chairman. The assembly also endorsed financial reports, including the Chamber’s 2026 budget and 2024 financial statements, and discussed planned activities for 2026.

Four countries have joined the Global Halal Mark alliance launched by the Saudi Halal Center, as the organisation moves to unify halal certification standards and strengthen cross-border trade within the global halal economy.

The announcement followed the signing of two agreements with Indonesia and Thailand during the Makkah Halal Forum, according to Abdulaziz Al-Rushodi, chief executive officer of the Saudi Halal Center, who said additional countries are expected to join the alliance.

The initiative aims to standardize halal marks internationally and enhance reliability across certification systems with participation projected to reach 10 countries by the end of the year.

The forum also saw the launch of the Halal Academy, established in cooperation with the Islamic University of Madinah. The academy is intended to serve as a global scientific reference supporting skills development, research and capacity building within the halal ecosystem.

Separately, the Saudi Halal Center announced plans for a “Global Halal Hub,” an integrated digital platform designed to streamline certification processes and facilitate trade procedures between participating countries. The platform aims to simplify compliance requirements and improve transparency across supply chains.

To support the domestic industry, the center signed a memorandum of understanding with the Food Manufacturers Association, representing thousands of Saudi factories. The partnership seeks to encourage local producers to adopt the Saudi halal mark, enabling greater export readiness and improving access to markets across the Islamic world.

Established in 2018 under the Saudi Food and Drug Authority, the Saudi Halal Center oversees halal certification by verifying compliance with Shariah and technical standards. Products carrying the halal mark indicate they have undergone regulatory auditing and meet defined Islamic compliance requirements.

Industry stakeholders highlighted the growing economic significance of halal certification initiatives. Yousef Khalawi, Secretary-General of the Islamic Chamber of Commerce and Development, said the global halal market was valued at approximately $7 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach $10 trillion by 2030 amid rising consumer demand and expanding investment across halal value chains.

Saudi Arabia currently leads global investment in the sector, with approximately $1.4 billion invested, followed by Malaysia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have emerged as top destinations for AI startup funding across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), as both nations look to scale their investments in frontier technologies. 

Enterprises across the UAE and Saudi Arabia raised $519 million and $235 million, respectively, making up 60% and 27% of the MENA’s AI funding last year, according to data platform Magnitt. 

The reported attributed strong financial services sectors as a key driver, with most VC investors hosting offices in either Riyadh or Dubai. 

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have launched colossuses to drive their national AI ambitions – G42 backed by Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Company and Humain, a subsidiary of Saudi sovereign wealth fund, Public Investment Fund.

The US recently authorised the export of advanced AI chips to G42 and Humain, slated to receive American semiconductors, equivalent of up to 35,000 Nvidia Blackwell chips.

The International Monetary Fund said that the GCC is well-positioned to leverage digitalization, with most countries close to or on par with advanced economies, especially in terms of digital infrastructure and affordability. 

“Similar to digitalization, the GCC’s AI preparedness exceeds that of an average EM (emerging market), supported by rapid advances in AI investments (including by SWFs), R&D (e.g., initiatives with universities and research centers, and investments in GenAI foundational models), and talent (including the attraction of AI skills from abroad),” the fund said in its GCC note published on December 6. 

AI captures sizeable slice

AI startups in MENA raised $858 million in 2025, making up 22% of the region’s total funding and 29% of its deal volume. 

AI-native startups, with their appetite for compute and model development, received 69% of total AI capital, while AI-enabled startups raised $267 million.

AI-native are startups whose core product or service is built on AI, while AI-enabled startups deploy the technology within their workflows and processes

Enterprise software stood as a top performer, drawing 30% of the region’s AI funding with 59 deals, signalling at the growing adoption of AI solutions by corporates. 
 

Bahraini banks could face a funding shortfall of $1.9 billion as of year-end 2025, in the event of a full-blown US-Iran conflict, threatening GCC stability and capital flows, according to recent analysis.  

The kingdom’s absolute funding shortfall, which will total 8% of its external assets after assumed haircuts, will be a steep decline from a $1.7 billion surplus in 2024, S&P Global said in a stress analysis report published on Tuesday. A haircut refers to a reduction applied to the value of an asset in percentage terms. 

Under a severe stress scenario where GCC lenders could face external funding outflows, Bahraini lenders may require domestic or regional support.

The shortfall reflects Bahraini banks' “rising external debt and an increase in assumed haircuts on investment portfolios that results from high exposure to sovereign creditworthiness”, the report added. 

Qatari lenders have pared their funding shortfall compared with previous estimates, with the potential shortfall declining from $7.4 billion as of year-end 2024 to $4.4 billion as of year-end 2025. The financial gap is anticipated to be covered by its government, thus limiting its overall risk.

Banks in the UAE, Kuwait, and Oman, on contrast, maintain strong net external asset positions and are well placed to cope with outflows. This scenario extrapolates to Saudi lenders, too, despite rapidly rising external debt levels. Saudi banks witnessed a sharp rise in their net external debt, increasing fivefold to $54.6 billion at year-end 2025, from $9.1 billion at year-end 2024.

On balance, GCC lenders have been highly exposed to external debt outflows amid rising geopolitical risks and regional tensions since 2023. 

“We continue to view external debt outflows as a plausible risk under a severe stress scenario - particularly in the event of a prolonged conflict involving non-regional and regional actors and sustained, broad-based attacks,” the report added. 

In case of an escalation, GCC lenders may face external funding outflows that may equate to half of interbank liabilities, and 30% for non-resident deposits. Lenders may then liquidate their external positions to fund the outflows that could result in reduced assets valuations, according to the analysis.   

Such liquidations could cause haircuts of 10% on interbank deposits and 20% on deposits held at head offices and branches. Furthermore, a reduction of 20% is possible on investment portfolios abroad, typically held for liquidity management; and 100% on loans to non-residents and other assets, the agency said. 

Qatari banks' net external debt stood at approximately $121 billion at the end of last November, equalling about 32% of total domestic lending. Non-resident deposits and interbank funding totaled $109 billion around the same time, constituting around 52% of banks’ external debt, according to S&P. 

“We consider this debt to be subject to the potential for outflows in the event of a significant spike in geopolitical risk. We note, however, that such outflows were limited when targets in Qatar were attacked by Iran and Israel in 2025, with about $3 billion of total outflows in each of August and October,” the rating agency said last month.  

Western Europe dominated tourism traffic in Dubai last year, with overall year-on-year visitor numbers up 5%. 

Arrivals from Western Europe stood at 4.1 million in 2025, making up a fifth of total visitor numbers, and up from 3.74 million in 2024. 

Visitors from CIS and Eastern Europe totalled 2.89 million, making 15% of the total visitor pool, followed by tourists from South Asia (2.89 million), Northeast and Southeast Asia (1.85 million; 9%), the Americas (1.40 million; 7%), Africa (897,000; 5%) and Australasia (401,000; 2%). 

Nearly three million tourists from the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and 2.17 million from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region visited Dubai last year, constituting 15% and 11% of total arrivals, respectively.  

Dubai hosted 19.59 million international tourists in 2025, up 5% year-on-year from 18.72 million arrivals the previous year, as it solidifies its position as a regional and global tourism hotspot. 

Strategic partnerships, global marketing campaigns and major events contributed to the emirate hosting such a colossal visitor pool, Dubai’s media office said in a statement on Monday. 

The city welcomed a record 2.04 million international overnight visitors last December, rising 6% year-on-year and edging past last January’s record of 1.94 million tourists. 

“By further enhancing the city’s exceptional infrastructure and forging strong global partnerships, we continue to consolidate Dubai’s emergence as one of the world’s most sought-after destinations,” said Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Dubai Crown Prince, and the UAE’s deputy prime minister.

“Dubai’s success also reflects the city’s diversity, cultural vibrancy, and its ability to continuously evolve its tourism and hospitality offerings. Through close collaboration between all stakeholders, we are focused on driving greater innovation and raising service excellence across the tourism ecosystem.”

In 2025, Dubai International (DXB) airport retained its position as the world’s busiest for international passengers for the 11th consecutive year, with total traffic from January through to September totalling 70.1 million.

By the end of December, the city’s hotel inventory reached 154,264 rooms across 827 establishments, which puts it well ahead of global peer cities such as Bangkok, New York, Paris and Singapore, and almost on par with London in terms of total room inventory. 

Three Dubai properties found space on the list of the world’s 50 best hotels in 2025, including Atlantis The Royal, Jumeirah Marsa Al Arab, and The Lana Dubai.