Oman’s economy expanded 5% in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, supported by higher oil production and increased trade through its ports, as the country benefited from its location outside the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
The sultanate has maintained energy exports and attracted shipping activity diverted from the strait, where disruptions have affected trade across the Gulf. However, economists warn that prolonged regional instability could weigh on foreign direct investment (FDI), which has supported Oman’s efforts to diversify its economy.
“Oman has been resilient to the shock in the Gulf due in large part to its position outside the Strait of Hormuz,” said Cedric Berry, director at Fitch Ratings.
“It has benefited tremendously from that by raising production of oil and other hydrocarbon products and as an alternative logistical route for goods entering and exiting the GCC.”
Oman’s nominal GDP rose 26% year-on-year to nearly $34 billion in the second quarter, with the oil and gas sector’s contribution increasing 55%. Hydrocarbon output grew nearly 15% in real terms, compared with growth of just 0.7% in non-oil activities.
Crude oil production averaged 935,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, its highest level since at least 2020. Re-exports also increased 20% in value during the first seven months of the year, reflecting greater activity through Omani ports.
Fitch Ratings expects Oman’s real GDP to grow 5% in 2026 before slowing to 3.1% in 2027, assuming oil prices average $70 per barrel next year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts growth exceeding 4% for Oman this year, making it the only Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economy expected to expand amid the conflict.
The IMF expects Saudi Arabia’s economy to contract 3.3% and the UAE’s 3.9%, while Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are projected to record double-digit declines.
Oman’s tourism sector has faced challenges, however, with activity at three- to five-star hotels declining by approximately 12% during the first nine months of 2026.
Foreign investment remains another concern. Berry said FDI had played an important role in supporting non-oil development, creating employment and reducing pressure on government spending.
Oman has also strengthened its fiscal position through debt reduction, spending restraint and the sale of stakes in state-owned companies.
The government has nearly halved its debt-to-GDP ratio since 2020, contributing to credit rating upgrades and improved investor confidence.
State energy group OQ has listed five subsidiaries on the Muscat exchange since early 2023, raising approximately $4.2 billion through initial public offerings. The latest, Oman India Fertiliser Company, listed in July.
The Muscat stock market has also benefited from increased investor interest, with its benchmark index reaching a record high in May after doubling over the preceding year, although it has since declined 13%.
The IMF, following a delegation visit to Muscat from October 25 to November 8, said Oman had continued to withstand the conflict's economic impact, supported by its largely unaffected energy infrastructure, logistics sector and fiscal management.
“The economic outlook remains favorable, despite heightened uncertainty,” said Abdullah AlHassan, the IMF’s mission chief for Oman and Afghanistan.
The IMF expects Oman’s fiscal and external reserves to remain stable, although higher food, transport and import costs linked to the conflict could increase inflationary pressures.
Oman’s longer-term economic prospects will depend on sustaining investment and expanding non-oil activities after the immediate benefits of higher energy prices and diverted trade begin to ease.