Yemen's Houthi militia has declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening to cut off a critical oil shipping route at a moment when the Strait of Hormuz is already severely disrupted.

The Iran-backed group announced the move in a televised address, framing it as retaliation for what it described as Saudi Arabia's "oppressive siege" on Yemen, including blockades on Houthi-held ports. "The Yemeni Armed Forces declare a maritime embargo against the criminal Saudi enemy, based on the equation of 'an eye for an eye', effective immediately," the group said.

With Bab al-Mandeb being Saudi Arabia's gateway to the Asian market, experts warn that the costs of forcing ships to reroute will be astronomical.

More than 7 million barrels of oil per day — around 7% of global trade — passed through Bab al-Mandab, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, in June, according to data from Kpler. EOS has identified five Saudi-flagged vessels in the Gulf of Aden heading towards the strait and another five moving down the Red Sea.

The blockade declaration compounds existing disruption to global energy flows. Before the US-Iran war began on February 28, around 20 million barrels per day — a fifth of the world's oil supply — transited the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic recovered partially after Washington and Tehran struck a preliminary deal in mid-June but has since slowed sharply following a new round of strikes across the Gulf. The Hormuz disruption had already pushed Saudi Arabia to increase exports via its Red Sea port of Yanbu, shipments that now face their own complications.

Crude futures, which briefly topped $90 a barrel on Monday, settled at $88.27 following the announcement, while the US West Texas Intermediate benchmark edged down to $82.11. Prices steadied after mediators put a proposal to Iran for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reviving last month's interim deal.

The Houthi move comes days after the group fired missiles at Abha airport in southern Saudi Arabia, breaking a truce in place since 2022. The Houthis said the strike was a response to a Saudi bombardment of Sanaa airport.

Analysts said the announcement alone could have significant consequences regardless of whether ships are actually attacked. Most analysts believe that even if no ships were attacked in the Red Sea, the announcement alone is likely to disrupt shipping and create uncertainty.

The Houthis previously barred US, Israeli and UK ships from Bab al-Mandab in 2023, later expanding their targeting to vessels calling at Israeli ports. Saudi Arabia's blockade of Houthi-held Yemen, imposed in 2017, has been described by the United Nations as a contributor to severe humanitarian conditions in the country. Reports last week indicated that Tehran had asked the Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Red Sea if the US struck Iranian power infrastructure.

With the signing of the memorandum of understanding in June, the US war in Iran was expected to ostensibly wind down. It has not, and from recent developments, the situation is looking far worse than what one would have expected a few days earlier. 

Yahya Saree, spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed forces, announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, effectively immediately, asserting that the Bab al-Mandeb Strait will be closed to Saudi maritime traffic. 

The strait, which sat at the heart of the global shipping landscape, now finds itself at the centre of the headlines. 

What are the key things to know about Bab al-Mandeb and why does it hold relevance in the geopolitical chessboard?

• The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a narrow martime chokepoint that connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Aden.

• It is a 20-mile-wide, 70-mile-long strait with the countries of Eritrea and Djibouti to the west and Yemen on its eastern edge. 

• It gain further prominence after the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, enabling intercontinental sea trade between Asia and Europe through the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. 

• The Strait owes its name to the perils of navigating the constricted waterway. The Arabic name Bab el Mandeb means Gate of Tears or Gate of Grief. 

• Bab el-Mandeb Strait accounts for about one-tenth of seaborne oil trade, making it the third busiest chokepoint in global oil trade after the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz. 

• Bab al-Mandeb is essential to Asia-Europe trade as the alternate Cape of Good Hope route increases transport times, fuel consumption, carbon emissions and insurance premiums. 

• An average of 9.3 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum liquids transited the waterway each day in 2023, before slipping to 4.1 million barrels per day in 2024 and 4.2 million bpd in the first half of 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

• The closure of Bab al-Mandeb along with a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could put a quarter of the world’s oil supply out of commission. 

Turkish exports to the Gulf region jumped 41% year on year to $2.6 billion in June, as easing conflict boosted demand and buyers turned to Turkey to replace goods previously sourced from disrupted Chinese supply chains.

Shipments to GCC member states alone topped $826 million, up 35%, according to data from the Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM). Saudi Arabia was the largest GCC buyer, importing $425 million of Turkish goods — a 117% year-on-year increase — followed by the UAE at $295 million and Kuwait at $34.7 million, marginally ahead of Qatar.

"We anticipate that, should lasting peace be secured, a much more positive picture will emerge in the second half of the year," said Mustafa Gültepe, TIM president, adding that the current growth rate could be maintained or increased in coming months.

The shift away from Chinese suppliers was a key driver of the increase. "Supplies from China to Gulf countries was largely halted with the war, so naturally they turned to us for goods," said Ayhan Zeytinoğlu, chairman of the Chamber of Industry in the northwestern province of Kocaeli. "While our export focus is Europe, the rise in June is good news, especially as some Gulf countries only started working with us over the past few years. In this current environment, we could be seeing monthly export revenues from the region increase further."

Jewellery was the single largest product category in GCC-bound shipments at $106 million, followed by chemical products at $69 million and pulses and cereals at $59 million.

The GCC figures were outpaced by Turkish exports to Iraq and Iran, which together accounted for more than $1 billion in June — up 26% and 64% respectively on the same month last year. For war-damaged Iran, metals, dried foods and chemical products were among the most in-demand Turkish goods.

Renewed hostilities, however, remain a risk. TIM's optimism for the second half of the year is conditional on a durable peace settlement, with the potential for conflict to again disrupt trade flows in the months ahead.

Indonesia is seeking to expand its exports to the Mediterranean and North African markets by exploring closer trade cooperation with Morocco.

The countries are exploring the establishment of a preferential trade agreement (PTA) to reduce tariff barriers and enhance the competitiveness of Indonesia's manufacturing industry, state-news agency Antara quoted Faisol Riza, deputy minister of industry as saying. 

"Morocco holds a strategic position as a gateway to North Africa and the Mediterranean region. We see significant opportunities to leverage this advantage to broaden market access for Indonesian industrial products while strengthening partnerships in future-oriented sectors such as aerospace, the halal industry, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy," Riza added. 

The deputy minister met with Moroccan secretary of state for foreign trade, Omar Hejira, to explore ways to strengthen bilateral industrial cooperation and accelerate cooperation in the halal industry. 

This builds on a mutual recognition agreement commitment on halal certification signed between Indonesia's Halal Product Assurance Organizing Agency and the Moroccan Institute for Standardization in May 2026 to expedite the entry of Indonesian products into the Moroccan market without repetitive certification procedures. 

Indonesian exports to Morocco include vegetable oils, rubber and its products, footwear, textiles, machinery, and electrical equipment, as well as key commodities such as coffee, tea, and spices. Meanwhile, Indonesia imports fertilizers, aluminium, textiles, and various industrial raw materials from Morocco. Both nations have maintained relations since 1956.