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Islamic Finance
Islamic finance sector growth to slow down to 5-10% globally

The global Islamic finance industry will continue to grow in 2026, but the momentum may ease as the effects of the Middle Eastern war continue to drain regional economies and industries.

The global Islamic finance industry growth is expected to slow down to about 5%-10% this year, following an expansion of 10.2% in 2025, S&P Global Ratings said on Monday. 

The Middle East war has significantly affected the economic growth outlook in some core Islamic finance countries, reducing sukuk issuance and growth opportunities for their banking systems, the rating agency said. 

“We expect global Islamic finance industry growth to slow in 2026 before recovering in 2027, assuming a resolution of the Middle East war and the gradual normalization of oil and gas supply, trade, and transportation.”

The outlook is predicated on the assumption that the US and Iran will reach an agreement to ease the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by end of May, resume the flow of oil and other products.  

The war has weakened the economic growth prospects of most GCC countries, which will inevitably result in lower growth opportunities for their banking systems, including Islamic banks.

Regional governments have rolled out support measures to shore up their domestic banking and financial services industries. The UAE Central Bank announced a support package for banks on March 17, which drove loan deferrals to near $1.7 billion by May 1.

Qatar also introduced a slew of measures to underpin its banking sector, including unlimited repurchase facilities in local currencies against securities held by lenders, as well as a term repo facility with three-month maturities.

Sukuk issuances by the six Gulf states increased 13.1% year-on-year in the first four months of 2026, underpinned by local currency issuance in Saudi Arabia. 

Saudi Arabia has expedited debt issuance as contends with lower oil receipts and funding requirements for its Vision 2030 projects. The kingdom raised $644 million (2.42 billion Saudi riyals) through its May sukuk issuance, scaling back monumentally from  16.946 billion Saudi riyals raised in April. 

Global sukuk issuance also rose by 20% from January through April this year, with contributions from Malaysia, Türkiye, and Indonesia, the agency said. 

“The resolution of the Middle East war will determine whether or not this trend continues, as the GCC accounted for 45% of global sukuk issuance in 2025,” added Mohamed Damak, Head of Islamic Finance at S&P Global Ratings. 
 

OIC Economies
Mubadala invests $325m in UK offshore wind project

Mubadala Investment Company has committed $325 million to the Hornsea 3 offshore wind project in the United Kingdom, as part of its strategy to expand investments in global infrastructure and energy transition assets.

The investment is being made through a consortium led by funds managed by Apollo Global Management, following the firm’s acquisition of a 50% stake in the joint venture that owns the project.

Developed by Ørsted, which will retain the remaining 50% stake and continue to lead construction and operations, Hornsea 3 is located off the UK’s eastern coast in the North Sea.

Karim El Jazzar, head of EMEA infrastructure at Mubadala, said the investment reflects the company’s approach of partnering with established operators to back large-scale infrastructure projects that support the energy transition.

Hornsea 3 is expected to generate 2.9 gigawatts (GW) of electricity, with the capacity to power more than 3.3 million homes. The project forms part of the United Kingdom’s broader plan to expand offshore wind capacity to up to 50GW by 2030 as it works toward net-zero emissions targets.

Rising electricity demand, driven by electrification across transport, heating and digital infrastructure, is expected to support long-term growth in the sector.

The investment adds to Mubadala’s portfolio of renewable energy assets, which includes stakes in companies such as Tata Power Renewables, Skyborn Renewables, PAG Renewables and Rezolv Energy.

Earlier this month, Mubadala also acquired a minority stake in Power Factors to support its global expansion.

The sovereign wealth fund, which manages assets of around $385 billion, continues to expand its presence across infrastructure and energy sectors as part of a diversified global investment strategy.

Islamic Finance
UAE Central Bank’s support package approaches $1.7bn

Loan deferrals under the UAE Central Bank’s support package launched in response to the Iran conflict have reached $1.68 billion (6.2 billion dirhams). 

More than 60,000 individuals, 4,335 SMEs (small and medium enterprises) and 485 corporates have benefitted from the support initiative launched in March. 

The transportation sector benefited the most, followed by hospitality and entertainment, according to data shared by the country’s central bank. 

The support mechanisms offered under the emergency package included deferment of repayment instalments for up to six months without classification as default, suspension of interest and fees on affected facilities as well as continuing credit financing for priority economic sectors.

No minimum loan size is required to benefit from the support package. 

The banking sector grew in the two months starting March 1, with assets rising 2.1%, loans by 3.2% and deposits by 1.9%. The monetary base cover ratio reached 115.3%. The ratio reflects the central bank’s responsibility to hold foreign reserves to cover its monetary base, which must be at least 70% as per local injunctions. Foreign reserves include gold, foreign currency cash and deposits and foreign securities.

The central bank announced a support package for banks on March 17, under which lenders were permitted to access reserve balances of up to 30% of the cash reserve requirement and availability of term liquidity facilities in dirham and dollar denominations. Lenders could delay the classification of affected customer loans as non-performing. 

The country’s banking system held a liquidity surplus of $48.19 billion (177 billion dirhams) on February 28, the first day of the conflict, slipping to $26.4 billion (97 billion dirhams) on March 30, marking a drop of around 45% in roughly one calendar month.

The country injected $8 billion into the banking sector on March 31, stemming from a rise in the central bank’s contingent liquidity insurance facility. The liquidity surplus stood at around $34 billion (125 billion dirhams) on May 10, according to CBUAE data. 

S&P Global Ratings said in March that banks did not report any significant funding outflows but cautioned that the full impact on banks’ asset quality indicators would take time to materialize. 

“Overall, we expect some deterioration in banks' financial performance in 2026, the extent of which will depend on the conflict’s duration and impact on local economies,” the rating agency added. 

Islamic Finance
Saudi Arabia opens May “Sah” Sukuk subscription at 4.56% return

Saudi Arabia has opened subscriptions for its May issuance of government-backed “Sah” savings Sukuk, offering an annual return of 4.56%, up from 4.50% in the previous month, according to the National Debt Management Center.

The subscription window opened on May 3 at 10:00 a.m. local time and will close on May 5 at 3:00 p.m., as part of the Kingdom’s 2026 Sukuk issuance programme aimed at encouraging personal savings and financial participation.

The minimum subscription amount is $266.56, with a maximum of $53,302 per investor. The Sukuk carries a one-year maturity and offers fixed returns payable at redemption.

The “Sah” Sukuk is part of Saudi Arabia’s Financial Sector Development Programme, which seeks to increase the national savings rate from around 6% to 10% by 2030.

The product is designed as a low-risk, Shariah-compliant savings instrument, offering fee-free participation, flexible redemption and returns linked to prevailing market conditions.

Subscriptions are available to Saudi nationals aged 18 and above through approved platforms, including SNB Capital, Aljazira Capital, Alinma Investment, SAB Invest and Al Rajhi Capital.

The latest issuance follows continued activity in the Kingdom’s domestic debt market. In April, the NDMC raised SR16.94 billion through its riyal-denominated Sukuk programme across five tranches, with maturities ranging from 2031 to 2041.

The offering comes amid stable sovereign credit conditions, with Fitch Ratings reaffirming Saudi Arabia’s A+ rating with a stable outlook earlier this year, citing strong fiscal metrics and financial reserves.

Halal Industry
Saudi fund closes $2bn Sadia Halal JV deal

Saudi Arabia’s Halal Products Development Company has announced the financial closing of its strategic acquisition agreement with Brazilian food producer MBRF. 

The agreement, which entails the acquisition of Sadia Halal’s poultry business in the Gulf region, Middle East and North Africa, excluding Türkiye, was valued at more than $2.07 billion. 

The deal will help drive the development of one of the world’s largest halal food businesses, HPDC said in a statement on Monday. 

The Sadia Halal joint venture will include MBRF assets including its manufacturing facilities, distribution centers, and logistics infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman.

It also includes direct export operations of Sadia Halal products to markets across the Middle East and North Africa. The assets were valued at $2.07 billion with net sales of $2.1 billion in the 12 months through June 2025, MBRF said last October. 

The agreement does not include MBRF’s assets based in Türkiye.

The launch of the company strengthens the kingdom’s presence as a hub for halal food production, innovation, and trade, the statement added. It also underscores Saudi’s attractiveness for strategic investment and industrial expansion on an international scale.

“Sadia Halal reflects the strength of the halal food sector in Saudi Arabia and supports reinforcing the kingdom’s position as a global hub serving local, regional, and international markets,” said Fahad bin Suliman Alnuhait, CEO of HPDC. 

HPDC, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, will hold a minimum of 20% stake in the enterprise, with the right to bump it up to 40% ahead of the venture's anticipated IPO on the Saudi Tadawul market next year. 

MBRF operates in 117 countries and generates annual revenues of 120 billion Saudi riyals, on the back of eight million tonnes of production every year, serving more than 425,000 customers. 
 

OIC Economies
Saudi GDP eases 2.8% in Q1 amid Iran conflict

Saudi Arabia’s real gross domestic product increased 2.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, according to flash government estimates issued on Thursday. 

Non-oil activities rose 2.8% while oil-related activities grew 2.3% year-on-year, data by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) suggested. 

However, seasonally adjusted real GDP for the first quarter decreased 1.5% on the previous quarter, driven by a 7.2% decline in oil activities, as the implications of the Iran-US war come into play. Government and non-oil activities grew 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. 

“Oil activities were the main contributor to the decline in seasonally adjusted real GDP, -1.7 (percentage points). Non-oil activities and government activities each contributed 0.1 (percentage points),” the report added. 

Gulf oil exporters directly affected by the war face steep downward revisions of up to 15 percentage points this year. The International Monetary Fund has lowered its GDP growth prediction for the kingdom for this year and next. 

The Saudi economy is now expected to expand 3.1 percent this year, down 0.9 percent from the IMF’s last review in October, and 4.5 percent in 2027, up 1.3% from its October’s forecast. 

On balance, Saudi Arabia is assessed to be less sensitive to price increase versus decline in volumes compared to other GCC economies such as Kuwait, the fund said in its latest review. Hence, a 10% increase in oil prices or a 10% decline in export volumes will impact the current account by slightly more than 1 percentage point.

Saudi Arabia activated its East-West Crude Pipeline at full capacity for the first time in its 40-year history in the wake of the US-Iran conflict. The petroline - that runs 1,201 kilometres connecting the Abqaiq oil field in the eastern province to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, was built during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. 

Saudi Aramco confirmed last March that it had increased the pipeline’s capacity to seven million barrels a day. Exactly a year later, the petroline reached its full operational capacity. 
 

OIC Economies
UAE to exit OPEC, citing shift as Iran conflict disrupts oil markets

The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC next month, its government said on Tuesday, ending decades of membership as it seeks greater flexibility to increase oil production during a period of geopolitical tension and market disruption linked to the Iran conflict.

The UAE, a member of the group since 1967 through Abu Dhabi, said the decision aligns with its long-term economic strategy and plans to expand energy investment. The move comes as oil markets face volatility and supply constraints, including disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for global energy supplies.

“The U.A.E.’s decision to exit from OPEC reflects a policy-driven evolution aligned with long-term market fundamentals,” Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said in a social media post. “We thank OPEC and its member countries for decades of constructive cooperation.”

In a statement published by WAM, the government said leaving the group would provide greater “flexibility” and support its “long-term strategic and economic vision.” Officials added that constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz mean the immediate market impact of the decision is likely to be limited.

The departure is expected to take effect on Friday and includes withdrawal from both OPEC and its wider alliance, OPEC+. The move reduces the group’s production capacity at a time when it has been managing supply to stabilise prices.

Before the current conflict, the UAE was producing about 3.6 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for roughly 12% of OPEC’s output, according to the International Energy Agency. Analysts say its exit could weaken the group’s ability to influence global markets over time.

Oil prices have risen sharply since the escalation of the Iran conflict, with Brent crude reaching as high as $119.50 a barrel. Prices were up 3.4%  on Tuesday at around $111.67.

The decision also highlights growing differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s leading member. The two countries have diverged on regional strategy and energy policy in recent years.

Tensions have intensified during the conflict with Iran. The UAE has faced repeated missile and drone attacks and has voiced dissatisfaction with the response from regional organisations. 

The UAE’s exit also aligns with broader criticism of OPEC from Donald Trump, who has accused the group of inflating oil prices and linked US security support for Gulf states to energy costs.

Despite leaving the group, UAE officials said the country would continue to increase production gradually, in line with demand and market conditions.


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