The interconnected nature of the world today points to the fact that we have moved from an era of distinct national economies to interlinked ecosystems.
The recent U.S. tariff wars and tightened immigration measures have brought this concept into sharp focus. The downturn in American inbound tourism, caused by the tariffs have prompted travelers, especially from the rapidly expanding Muslim travel segment, to look elsewhere for destinations that better align with their cultural, economic, and faith-related needs.
For decades, inbound tourism to the United States seemed relatively shielded from geopolitical strain. Yet the decline triggered by policy-driven tensions, such as trade disputes and perceived exclusionary rhetoric, has been particularly steep, underscoring how swiftly global perceptions can alter travel flows.
U.S. tourism in turbulence: The impact of tariffs and tensions
According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the United States welcomed 72.3 million international visitors in 2024, making it the world’s third-most-visited country that year. It also led in tourism revenue, earning approximately $194 billion. Canada and Mexico combined made up over half of all foreign arrivals (20.24 million from Canada and 16.98 million from Mexico), with the United Kingdom placing third at 4.03 million visitors (5.6% of total arrivals). Brazil, India, and China all posted healthy upticks last year, including a notable 24.3% increase from India and a 21.4% boost from China.
Those numbers, however, have begun to slip. A recent Skift report cites U.S. International Trade Administration data revealing a 10.3% decline in arrivals from 20 major source countries in March 2025 compared to last year. Western Europe saw a 17.2% slump overall, with Germany down 28.2% and the U.K. by 14.3%. Asia was off by 3.4%, while Eastern Europe increased by 1.5%.
Faltering numbers: What the numbers reveal
Mabrian, a global travel intelligence firm, analyzed millions of flight searches between January and March 2025 from ten primary outbound markets—the U.K., Germany, France, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, India, Japan, South Korea, and China. Their data reflected a 0.4% year-over-year drop in overall European interest in the U.S., with Germany and Italy slipping nearly one percentage point versus 2024.
Similarly, a Switzerland-based consortium, Serandipians, surveyed 250 member agencies outside the U.S. and found that 35% reported declining travel requests, while only 10% noted an uptick. Tourism Economics, a key forecasting firm, estimates a 9.4% drop in U.S. overseas arrivals for 2025—almost double its February projection of a 5% decline. The group also warns of a possible 20% fall in arrivals from Canada, a drop the U.S. Travel Association says could mean 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and 14,000 job losses.
Halal tourism on the rise
While U.S. inbound tourism softens, destinations that cater to Muslim travelers have emerged as notable beneficiaries. An Al Jazeera report forecasts that halal tourism will reach $410.9 billion by 2032, up from $256.5 billion in 2023. Meanwhile, the Global Muslim Travel Index (GMTI) 2024 projects the Muslim population to climb from 2.12 billion in 2024 to 2.47 billion in 2034.
As younger, digitally savvy Muslim travelers seek destinations accommodating religious and cultural needs, these figures hint at a thriving market in need of responsive hosts.
Already, OIC nations such as Malaysia, Turkey, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates, have intensified efforts to position themselves as top picks for faith-aware tourists, offering everything from halal menus to family-friendly beaches. In Qatar, recent initiatives include medical tourism and large-scale sporting events tailored to Muslim guests. Meanwhile, lesser-known tourist destinations, like Oman and Saudi Arabia, are attracting interest with scenic landscapes and futuristic multi-billion-dollar tourism infrastructures, respectively.
Beyond the OIC: Non-muslim destinations embrace inclusivity
Equally telling is the push by non-OIC countries, which see the financial upsides of appealing to Muslim travelers. For example, Thailand implemented a halal industry action plan in July last year to leverage the growing halal sector and revive its tourism-dependent economy post-pandemic. That same November, the Hong Kong Tourism Board announced an initiative to enhance Muslim-friendly tourism, encouraging restaurants, hotels, and attractions to review their offerings and pursue halal certification.
Taiwan has ranked highly with the Crescent Rating since 2019, while the Philippines, labeled an emerging Muslim-friendly destination, retained that distinction for a second straight year in 2024. Philippine Tourism Secretary Christina Frasco acknowledged the importance of halal tourism for the country's global competitiveness, emphasizing the need to accommodate Muslim travelers.
Elsewhere, Zanzibar hosted a Halal Tourism Exhibition last year, hoping to attract investors and support existing local enterprises that already adhere to halal practices.
Japan also saw momentum grow ahead of the rescheduled 2020 Olympics, prompting Tokyo and Osaka to expand Muslim-friendly facilities. Over in South Africa, halal-friendly safari excursions, optimized for dining and prayer breaks, are being marketed to tap into the Muslim traveler market. Lastly, in Europe, Germany and the U.K. are leveraging sizable Muslim communities, ensuring reliable access to halal dining, prayer areas, and cultural events.
As the United States grapples with the aftereffects of its tariff conflicts and more restrictive immigration protocols, other destinations are pulling travelers in with a reputation for cultural sensitivity and hospitality. “Muslim leisure travelers share the same motivations as other tourists—they want to immerse themselves in local culture,” explained Crescent Rating CEO, Fazal Bahardeen in comments to Al Jazeera. “The difference lies in their desire to do so while meeting their fundamental faith-based requirements. This isn’t merely religious tourism.”
With these visitors’ numbers on the rise—and with non-OIC nations increasingly fine-tuning their halal certification standards—those able to adopt inclusive strategies will likely see short- and long-term gains. In the process, the global map of desirable travel hubs is evolving: once-loyal visitors to the U.S. are reassessing where they can spend their money in an environment they deem more inviting. As the Muslim travel segment broadens in size and spending power, it may become the linchpin in determining which destinations rise and fall in this newly competitive tourism landscape.
