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OIC Economies
Saudi economy swells 5% in third quarter

Saudi Arabia’s economy grew 5% in the third quarter of the year, due to all-round growth in oil and non-oil activities. 

Oil activities were the main driver powering the kingdom seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP) through the July-September period, growing 8.2% year-on-year, according to flash estimates issued by Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT). Seasonally adjusted real GDP grew 1.4% quarter-on-quarter. 

However, non-oil activities drove real GDP growth, rising 4.5%, and contributing 2.6 percentage points. This was accompanied by a 1.8% rise in government activities. 

The kingdom’s economy is expected to expand 4% this and next year, the International Monetary Fund said in its October regional economic outlook. Last month’s projections represent a 1.0 and 0.3 percentage point upward revision from April for 2025 and 2026, respectively. 

The fund also raised its growth projections for the MENA region in October, expected to grow 3.3% in 2025 against its April forecast of 2.6%. The region’s GDP will expand 3.7% next year, opposed to 3.4% estimated in April’s regional economic outlook.  

Saudi Arabia is expected to record $44.2 billion in fiscal deficit for next year, estimated at 3.3% of the kingdom’s GDP.

The kingdom has been running on budget deficits since 2022, as reduced oil prices compress revenues. Brent crude, which serves as a benchmark for roughly two-third of the world’s crude oil supplies, dipped 15% since the beginning of the year. 

The fund did not publish breakeven oil prices in its October regional outlook but said in April that the kingdom needs oil north of $92 per barrel to balance its books. 

Fitch Ratings reaffirmed Saudi Arabia’s credit rating at ‘A+’, with a stable outlook in August.  
 

OIC Economies
Saudi Arabia beckons financial elite at FII

Saudi Arabia hosted the ninth edition of the Future Investment Initiative, welcoming over 9,000 delegates. 

The forum, in its ninth edition, has stood out as an eminent investment and strategic partnerships platform, having helped seal more than $250 billion in deals since inception. 

This year’s event closed on a message of determination and optimism, a new era driven by AI, human ingenuity and a shared belief of progress. 

More than half of the year’s speakers hailed from the technology sector, reflecting how the world is gravitating towards a tech-centric, AI-powered world. 

Private equity is the new economic driver
Investors agreed that private capital — valued at over $13 trillion and projected to surpass $20 trillion within five years — has become the world’s new economic backbone.

Recalibrating the new AI frontier
Philip Johnston of Starcloud announced the launch of the world’s first AI data center in space, powered by SpaceX’s 100x reduction in launch costs. 

“We can now train AI off-planet — cooled by the cosmos,” he said.

Eric Jang of 1X Technologies revealed plans to deploy 100,000 humanoid robots by 2027, marking what he called “the dawn of robots building robots.”

Empowering entrepreneurs
Startups operating in sectors such as AI-designed medicine, diagnostic health, humanoid robotics, and sovereign computing, captivated investors. 

CEO of Saudi Arabia’s National Technology Development Program (NTDP) Ibrahim Abdulaziz Neyaz pledged continued support to “enable creative entrepreneurs from around the world to serve humanity.”

Saudi Arabia: the new investment capital 
Yazeed Alhumied of Saudi sovereign fund PIF announced that Saudi Arabia’s asset management industry has exceeded SAR1 trillion in assets under management, propelled by product innovation, global partnerships, and talent development.

Chairman of the Capital Markets Authority Mohammed El-Kuwaiz revealed that private capital is now the fastest-growing segment of Saudi finance, expanding at nearly twice the industry rate, with private credit assets more than doubling in recent years.

Executives from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, State Street, and PIF discussed the rapid rise of private credit, ETFs, and quantitative investing — with Goldman’s Dennis Walsh calling the kingdom “one of the most exciting emerging markets in the world for data-driven alpha.”

OIC Economies
Will US tariffs prompt India to pivot to the GCC?

Indian businesses and exporters may steer a course towards GCC countries to circumvent steep US tariffs, according to analysts.  

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order in August, imposing an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, in addition to other duties, fees, taxes, exactions, and applicable charges.

The White House cited India’s continued purchase of Russian oil, as the rationale for the move, calling it a counter to Russia’s threat to US national security and foreign policy. Russia accounts for about 34% of India’s crude imports. 

Indian exports to the US fell 11.93% year-on-year in September, and a whopping 20.39% on the previous month, as the impact of the tariffs began to take shape. 

The steepest impact will fall on labour-intensive sectors where the US accounts for a large share of India’s exports - including carpets (58%), textiles and garments (35%), gems and jewellery (39%), and shrimp (32%), Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, a Delhi-based think tank, tells Salaam Gateway. 

“These industries have thin margins and little room to absorb a 50% tariff shock.” 
The impact may drive Indian companies to veer towards other lucrative markets, including the GCC. 

“Several Indian firms, particularly in gems and jewellery and electronics assembly, are exploring a shift of production and processing bases to the UAE and other GCC countries to remain cost competitive. The region’s low-tariff access to key markets and strong logistics networks makes it an attractive fallback option,” adds Srivastava. 

“Sectors where production and finishing facilities can be quickly established are best positioned to reroute exports via the GCC.” 

Krishna Bhimavarapu, an economist at US-headquartered State Street investment Management adds that while there is a lot of uncertainty, there is a good chance for Indian firms to explore the GCC markets, especially given the positive trade dialogue that has been happening.

India has strong economic and diplomatic ties with the Gulf countries with bilateral trade worth $178.56 billion in FY2024-25. 

Indian exports to the UAE soared 24.33% year-on-year in September, rising from last year’s $2.8 billion to $3.5 billion last month. Exports to Saudi Arabia increased 14.2% last month, too, according to data released by the Indian ministry of commerce and industry.   

“Dubai and Abu Dhabi, already major re-export hubs, are emerging as natural staging points for Indian firms diversifying away from direct US shipments,” says Srivastava. 

The six-nation GCC hosts north of nine million Indian expatriates, making it an invigorating market for the Indian diaspora and products.  The influx of Indian businesses into the GCC has continued to gather momentum, with over 9,000 joining Dubai Chamber of Commerce during the first six months of the year.

Meanwhile, over 40 Indian companies have established regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia.

The UAE will also be home to Bharat Mart, a huge facility spread across 2.7 million square feet designed to provide new market opportunities to Indian manufacturers and exporters.

Trade alliances are in the ascendant, too - India signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) with the UAE in May 2022, to reduce or eliminate tariffs on the vast majority of products. The Southeast Asian country has recenty concluded CEPA negotiations with the sultanate of Oman and is aiming to lock in a free trade agreement with Qatar by third quarter of next year to push bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2030.

Among reports of an imminent US-India trade deal, will such a pact, if realized, stall the influx of Indian companies looking to step up shop in the GCC? 

“I don't think so,” says Bhimavarapu. “Because there is also a trade dialogue with the GCC countries alongside with the US.”

OIC Economies
Bangladesh likely to offer Pakistan Special Economic Zone at upcoming joint economic commission meeting

Bangladesh plans to offer Pakistan a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) for investment during the ninth Joint Economic Commission (JEC) meeting scheduled for October 27 in Dhaka, according to officials from the Economic Relations Division (ERD).

The meeting, the first in nearly two decades, is expected to focus on enhancing bilateral trade and cooperation, particularly in textiles, agriculture, and halal food production, sectors where both countries see strong potential for collaboration.

“This is a warm-up meeting between the two nations after almost 20 years,” said Dr Mizanur Rahman, additional secretary at the ERD. “We hope Dhaka and Islamabad will reach a consensus on boosting trade, investment, and overall economic cooperation.”

Bangladesh’s delegation will be led by finance adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed, joined by special assistant to chief adviser Dr Anisuzzaman and ERD secretary Shahriar Kader Siddiky, while Pakistan’s delegation will be headed by federal minister for economic cooperation Ahad Khan Cheema, officials confirmed.

Officials said the two countries are expected to discuss joint ventures in halal food production aimed at expanding exports to overseas markets. The Bangladesh Standards and Testing Institution (BSTI) and the Pakistan Halal Authority (PHA) are also likely to sign a cooperation agreement to promote halal certification and industry growth.

According to ERD officials, reducing the trade imbalance will also be a key discussion point. In fiscal year 2025, Bangladesh imported $787 million worth of goods from Pakistan but exported only $80 million, highlighting a significant deficit.

Bangladesh will seek duty- and quota-free access for key products including jute, pharmaceuticals, ready-made garments, electronics, and tea, in a bid to diversify and strengthen exports to Pakistan.

The JEC meeting marks a thaw in bilateral relations after years of political distance. The last such meeting took place in September 2005, but subsequent sessions were postponed as ties cooled under the Awami League government, which took power in 2009.

Relations began to improve following the fall of the Awami League government in 2024, after which several high-level Pakistani delegations visited Dhaka. 

Officials in Dhaka say the renewed engagement and the upcoming JEC meeting could set the stage for deeper trade, investment, and industrial cooperation between the two South Asian nations.

OIC Economies
Pakistan, Malaysia deepen ties with six agreements

Pakistan and Malaysia signed six agreements to strengthen bilateral cooperation during Pakistan premier Shahbaz Sharif’s first state visit to the Southeast Asian country. 

The agreements included memorandum of understandings on higher education, tourism, halal certification, small and medium enterprises as well as combating and preventing corruption.

Both sides memorialized cooperation to train diplomats, too.

Malaysia announced a $200 million quota for meat exports from Pakistan which, the Pakistan premier assured, will be regulated by market price mechanisms and comply with halal certification requirements set forth by Malaysian authorities. 

The two countries agreed to continue to explore new avenues for collaboration across sectors covering IT and telecom, halal industry, connectivity, green energy, electrical and electronic manufacturing, climate change and agriculture. 

The Pakistani premier’s visit comes a year after Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim’s state visit to Pakistan. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to expand bilateral cooperation, with particular focus on strengthening economic and trade ties.

The Malaysian premier said both nations saw potential in deepening ties in defense, agriculture, energy and digital technologies, against the current backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties. 

Speaking to state-run Associated Press of Pakistan, Sardar Tahir, Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry head, said both countries can enhance bilateral trade to $5 billion in the next three years. 

Trade between the two countries reached $1.76 billion in 2024, soaring 25.5% year-on-year. Key Malaysian export products include palm oil, petroleum and chemical items, while imports cover textile, apparel, footwear and petroleum items.

The Southeast Asian country aims to increase palm oil exports to Pakistan to fulfil increasing demand within domestic food processing and manufacturing sectors. 

Malaysia and Pakistan established diplomatic relations in 1957, which elevated to a strategic partnership in 2019.
 

Islamic Finance
Abu Dhabi dominates MENA sovereign wealth fund spending

Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company was the most active sovereign investor across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) during the first nine months of 2025, as the region gains prominence as a hotbed of economic activity and financial strength. 

MENA sovereign investors ploughed $56.3 billion in 97 transactions from the beginning of January through September, Global SWF said in its 2025 MENA Playbook launched on Wednesday.

MENA SWF activity made up about 40 per cent of all global activity, with over a third of the capital deployed in the US, 28% across Europe, including the UK, and 16% domestically. 

Mubadala invested $17.4 billion, followed by Abu Dhabi Investment Office, which spend $9.6 billion. They were trailed by Qatar Investment Authority ($7.6 billion), Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund ($6.2 billion) and Abu Dhabi's ADQ ($4.8 billion).

The funds, dubbed as the Oil Five, in the report, comprised 81% of all sovereign dealmaking across the MENA region, with Abu Dhabi’s three wealth funds funds comprising more than half of it. 

On balance, state-owned investors − which includes SWFs, public pension funds and central banks – spend $8.2 trillion in the nine months through September. While it was a modest increase over 2024’s $8 trillion, MENA state-owned investment is projected to reach $12 trillion by 2030. 

Inbound capital from global state-owned investors into MENA remains limited, despite recent partnerships with Canada’s La Caisse and investments by Singapore’s GIC and China’s CIC.

“The war has made it worse, as Norway’s NBIM, the world’s largest SWF, recently sold $2.8 billion of Israel-related stocks. However, governments across the region - especially in the GCC - are making significant efforts to attract offices of asset managers," the report added. 
 

OIC Economies
Saudi expects fiscal deficit of 3.3% of GDP in 2026

Saudi Arabia is expected to record a fiscal deficit of $44.2 billion (166 billion Saudi riyals) next year, the kingdom’s finance ministry has estimated.

The deficit for 2026, estimated at 3.3% of the kingdom’s gross domestic product, is a sharp drop from 5.3% projected for this year. 

Despite the projected deficit for 2026, the government will continue to adopt “expansionary spending policies that are contrary to the economic cycle”, the finance ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. The funds will be directed towards national priorities with social and economic impact. 

Government revenues for 2026 are expected to total $305 billion (1.147 trillion Saudi riyals), with expenditures totalling $350 billion (1.313 trillion Saudi riyals). Inflation is set to rise 2.3% this year, before dipping to 2% in 2026. 

Total revenues are expected to reach about $345 billion (1.294 trillion riyals) in 2028, with total expenditures estimated to touch $378 billion (1.419 trillion riyals) the same year. 

Mohammed Aljadaan, Saudi minister of finance, said that the kingdom’s ratio of public debt to GDP is still at relatively low levels compared to other economies, and that it is within safe limits compared to the size of the economy, and supported by financial reserves.

The government continues to support economic growth by continuing development projects and implementing national strategies and motivating the private sector to be an effective partner in development, he added. 

Saudi economy is expected to grow 4.4% this year, according to ministry data, higher than the International Monetary Fund’s July projection of 3.6%. The fund expects the kingdom’s GDP to grow by 3.9% in 2026, lower than the ministry’s projections of 4.6%. 

The kingdom has been running budget deficits since 2022, as reduced oil revenues squeeze state coffers. Brent crude, which serves as a benchmark for roughly two-thirds of the world's crude oil supplies, dipped nearly 14% since the beginning of the year. 

Saudi Arabia needs oil to be north of $92 per barrel this year and at $86.6 per barrel in 2026 to balance its books, according to the IMF. It is currently hovering around $65 per barrel mark, well below levels needed for fiscal equilibrium. 
 

OIC Economies
Iran signs deal with Russia to build small nuclear power plants

Tehran and Moscow have signed an agreement to construct small nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Iran. 

The memorandum of understanding was signed between Alexey Likhachev, CEO of Rosatom State Corporation and Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, in Moscow. 

The two nuclear officials discussed the progress of ongoing projects and cooperation prospects in peaceful nuclear energy, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported. 

Eslami, who is also Iran's vice president, recently spoke of the plan to construct eight nuclear power plants backed by Russia as Tehran seeks to reach 20 gigawatts of nuclear energy capacity by 2040.

“We will visit the facilities of the contracting parties and hold meetings with scientific and research institutions on ways to strengthen research and educational interactions and relations,” Iranian news agency cited Eslami as saying, at the beginning of his Russia trip. 

The latest agreement precedes the pacts signed in 1992 between the two countries, on nuclear energy cooperation and the continuation of the construction of the nuclear plant near the Southern Iran city of Bushehr. The first power unit was connected to the grid in September 2011 and handed over to Iran two years later.

The Russian state corporation is constructing the Bushehr plant at present. In November 2014, a contract to construct the second stage of the NPP was signed, constituting the second and third VVER-1000 power units. The two power units are expected to be put into operation in 2025 and 2027, respectively.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has restated the country's commitment to peaceful nuclear pursuits, adding that Iran has no goal to develop a nuclear weapon. 

"We are not pursuing nuclear weapons, and this is a principled belief backed by a religious decree from the Leader. As a result, we have never sought weapons of mass destruction, and we never will do so,” the premier said at the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday.

Tehran is prepared to permit inspection of its nuclear activities within the bounds of international regulations and its entitlement under law, the Iran president added on the sidelines of the event. 

Islamic Lifestyle
Alshaya reveals Mideast’s first Primark location 

Retail franchise conglomerate Alshaya Group will open the Middle East’s first Primark store in Kuwait.

The region’s flagship store, located at the Grand Plaza in The Avenues, will be inaugurated on October 23. The Avenues, billed as the largest shopping centre in Kuwait, hosts more than 800 stores spread over 425,000 sq. metres. 

“It’s confirmed…. our plans with Primark to bring their stores to the Middle East starts next month in Kuwait,” John Hadden, Alshaya’s CEO said in a LinkedIn post

Three mega stores in Dubai, UAE, will be launched in the first and second quarter of next year, the CEO added. 

Primark said in a May statement that that three stores set to be launched in Dubai next year will be located in Dubai Mall, Mall of the Emirates and City Centre Mirdif.

Primark’s foray into Kuwait next month and in Dubai next year, marks the international retailer’s 18th and 19th market entries, respectively. Originally founded in Dublin, the retailer operates more than 460 stores worldwide. 

“It’s fantastic to be preparing for our first stores to arrive in the Middle East in partnership with Alshaya Group. We know there is already a strong cohort of shoppers ready and waiting for us and we believe the wider region holds a lot of potential for Primark and our value proposition,” Eoin Tonge, Primark interim CEO said in May. 

Kuwait-headquartered Alshaya offers over 70 international brands and operates more than 4,000 stores, cafes, restaurants, leisure destinations, logistics and food production operations, alongside over 125 online and digital businesses. 
 


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