The UAE’s real gross domestic product fell 2.1% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 to AED476.9 billion ($130 billion), as disruptions linked to the regional conflict weighed on tourism, transport and trade, according to preliminary estimates from the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (FCSC).

Non-oil activities contracted by 1.1% in the quarter ended June 30, though they continued to account for a growing share of the economy, rising to 79.2% of real GDP in the first half of 2026, up from 78.1% a year earlier. Oil activities made up the remaining 20.8%, down from approximately 23% in the same period of 2025.

For the first half of 2026 as a whole, real GDP reached AED961.9 billion at constant prices, a modest increase of 0.4% on the same period in 2025, supported by non-oil GDP growth of 1.8%. The FCSC said the results reflect continued diversification of the UAE’s economic base, with non-oil sectors driving the bulk of activity.

Among major sectors, financial and insurance activities recorded the strongest growth in the first half, expanding 14.8%, followed by information and communications at 7.3%, health and social work at 6%, construction at 5.1%, government services at 3.6% and real estate at 2.3%. By contribution to non-oil GDP, trade ranked first at 16.2%, followed by financial and insurance activities at 15.2%, construction at 13.1%, manufacturing at 11.8% and real estate at 7.9%.

The second-quarter contraction reflects pressure that has built since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in late February, which was followed by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and widespread disruption to regional travel and commercial activity. Oil prices have remained around $100 per barrel despite some recovery in Gulf flows, reflecting ongoing shipping risks and elevated transport costs.

The FCSC noted that the first-half and second-quarter figures are preliminary estimates. A comprehensive revision of the UAE’s national GDP time series is under way and the updated figures are expected to be released in the first quarter of 2027.

The Middle East and North Africa region's economy is projected to contract by 0.3% in 2026 before rebounding 6.3% in 2027, the International Monetary Fund said, as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz weighs heavily on energy producers across the Gulf.

The forecasts, published in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, represent a downward revision of 2.2 percentage points for 2026 and an upward revision of 1.7 percentage points for 2027 compared with the Fund's April projections. The IMF said the revisions reflect a longer-than-anticipated Hormuz closure and a correspondingly larger recovery once shipping routes normalise.

"Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar — commodity producers most affected by disruptions to energy output and transport — are projected to experience double-digit contractions of their economies in 2026, followed by double-digit expansions in 2027 as production, exports and logistics normalise," the IMF said.

Saudi Arabia is expected to fare somewhat better, given more diversified energy export routes. The Fund projects a 3.3% contraction in the Saudi economy this year and a recovery of nearly 8% in 2027.

The IMF previously forecast some growth for Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman in 2026; it now projects significant contractions for all but Oman.

The IMF's baseline scenario assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens in March 2027 and gradually returns to pre-war conditions by early 2028. The US-Israeli conflict with Iran, now in its eighth month, has continued to disrupt commercial shipping through the strait, with the exception of a brief period in June when an interim peace deal allowed vessels to transit unharmed.

The projections may not fully account for an escalation in hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi militia. The Iran-backed group has struck Saudi energy facilities and civilian infrastructure in recent weeks, including attacks on Riyadh's main international airport that resulted in multiple fatalities and injuries to hundreds.

Speaking at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh this week, energy minister Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman Al Saud said the capital remained safe and that Saudi Arabia would continue investing in oil and gas infrastructure to bypass Hormuz.

Crude oil prices are expected to average 41% higher this year than in 2025, and natural gas prices 48% higher, based on data extrapolated from September 21.

Despite the regional disruption, the IMF's global growth projections are broadly unchanged from April, supported by energy rerouting, increased production outside the Gulf, inventory drawdowns and an investment boost driven by artificial intelligence.

A trade agreement between the UAE and the five-nation Eurasian Economic Union — Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan — entered into force on October 6, eliminating or reducing tariffs across 85% of tariff lines and covering 95% of bilateral trade by value.

Non-oil trade between the UAE and the EAEU reached more than $33.3 billion in 2025, up 15% on the previous year. The Eurasian Economic Commission expects the agreement to add at least $5–6 billion annually to that figure.

"The agreement has an asymmetric effect on the two sides' tariff commitments. For the UAE, it mainly expands the range of goods traded duty-free, while for the EAEU the main effect is lower tariffs," the Russia-UAE Business Council said, adding that for established trade flows, the deal would make it easier for companies to bring new products to market.

The asymmetry reflects the two sides' starting positions. UAE import tariffs are generally low, with most goods subject to rates of 0% or 5%. EAEU tariffs can reach 80% on some product lines, meaning the cuts represent a more substantial change for exporters selling into the bloc. Russia's Resource Agribusiness Group noted that the UAE's existing 5% tariff on crude sunflower oil from the EAEU will fall to zero in the first year.

For UAE-based manufacturers, lower EAEU tariffs open a new incentive to produce or process goods in the Emirates for export into the bloc. Abu Dhabi coffee producer Maatouk 1960 Factory, which imports green beans from Latin America, Africa and Asia and packages them as UAE-origin products, plans to begin shipments to the EAEU in the first quarter of 2027.

The agreement also raises concerns in some EAEU industries. The Russian jewellery sector faces the prospect of gold and silver jewellery from the UAE — currently subject to a 10% import duty — entering at zero tariff once the deal takes effect. Questions have been raised about whether goods from third countries such as China or India could be routed through the UAE to benefit from the preferential rate after simple repackaging.

Serafima Pankratova, counsel at Balayan Group, a Moscow-based law firm, said the main legal challenge would be proving the origin of goods. Customs authorities may also verify eligibility for preferential treatment after clearance and recover duties if origin requirements are not met, she said. Dmitry Antonov, senior vice-president of Resource, cautioned that tariff reductions alone would not be sufficient, pointing to product approvals, certification, logistics and local distribution as core requirements for sustainable trade.

The deal aligns with Dubai's D33 economic agenda, which aims to more than double manufacturing value added by 2033, and with the UAE's broader strategy of using its expanding trade agreement network to attract manufacturing and processing activity. Although the full impact will take time to materialise, the agreement is expected to shift how companies structure supply chains between the two markets.

The Government of Maldives and Abu Dhabi-based developer Eagle Hills have signed a commercial terms agreement for a $12 billion integrated waterfront and marina development in the Ras Malé area, in what would be the largest single foreign investment in the country's history.

The agreement, announced on September 21, sets out the shared vision and principal commercial terms for the Maldives Waterfront and Marina project, with detailed terms to be finalised as development progresses across multiple phases.

"For the Maldives, this is the largest investment programme in our history — billions of dollars of foreign investment moving through our banking system, creating jobs, homes for Maldivian families, and direct revenue to the State from every sale, achieved without tax giveaways and without government borrowing," said Dr. Abdulla Muththalib, Minister of Infrastructure, Housing and Urban Development.

The development is planned for reclaimed land in the Ras Malé area and will include hotels and resorts, premium and branded residences, a marina, waterfront promenades, retail, dining, wellness, entertainment, education, healthcare and community infrastructure. Properties will be offered under a leasehold framework of up to 99 years, with the term renewed upon each transfer through sale or inheritance.

Eagle Hills chairman Mohamed Alabbar said the project would build on the Maldives' existing international appeal. "Our ambition is to build responsibly on that strength and create something world-class," he said.

The project is expected to generate tax revenues, stimulate demand across hospitality, construction, retail and marine services, and create direct and indirect employment. Eagle Hills has committed to no further dredging beyond the existing reclaimed land, with independent marine monitoring to accompany construction throughout.

Dr. Muththalib said the development was designed to establish real estate as a structural pillar of the Maldivian economy alongside tourism. "It is a decisive step on our path to becoming a high-income country by 2040," he said.

Korea signed several agreements and memorandums of understanding (MOU) with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan spanning energy, investment, security and cultural cooperation.

Korea and Kyrgyzstan signed 18 agreements, covering critical minerals, halal markets, infrastructure development, livestock technology, energy and intellectual property, The Korean Times has reported. 

The two countries also agreed to cooperate in culture and sports,

Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov said Korea is regarded as a key partner in the Asia-Pacific region.

"There are no major differences in political views between our two countries, and we hold similar positions on international and regional affair."

Meanwhile, Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Tajikistan's premier Emomali Rahmon signed 17 pacts in Seoul this week, aiming to expand textile, chemical and machinery exports and cooperate on artificial intelligence (AI), digital industries, critical minerals and the green transition. 

The agreements will facilitate deepening ties in railways, transportation and logistics, as well as intellectual property, energy and industrial safety.

Korea aims to bolster customs and police cooperation against transnational crime with both Central Asian countries.

"Korea and Tajikistan have steadily developed cooperation since 1992, and I find it deeply meaningful that this visit has allowed our two countries to establish a comprehensive partnership," Lee said.

 "I hope the two countries will expand mutually beneficial cooperation in railways, critical minerals, digital technology and other areas going forward."

Overland trade through the Hatta Customs Crossing between the UAE and Oman surged 175% in value in the first half of 2026, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed exporters and logistics companies to shift cargo to land routes.

The number of loaded trucks crossing the checkpoint rose 160% year on year to 109,000 between January and June, up from 42,000 in the same period last year, according to the Dubai Media Office.

Almost one million people crossed the checkpoint in the first half of the year, with transiting buses up 78% and 322,000 light vehicles recorded.

Dubai Customs launched a Green Corridor initiative following the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict on February 28 to help sustain regional and international trade flows and support market stability as key shipping routes came under pressure.

The land route shift is driving broader infrastructure investment. Oman is accelerating construction of a OMR1 billion ($2.6 billion) road network proposed before the war, as it moves to strengthen its position as a Gulf logistics hub.

Trucking companies across the GCC have also scaled up capacity — Saudi-based Flow Progressive Logistics nearly doubled its fleet from around 340 trailers before the conflict to more than 500.

The conflict has intensified this month, with the US and Iran targeting tankers in the strait, keeping pressure on alternative overland and coastal trade corridors.