The United States and Saudi Arabia have signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement that would allow the kingdom to enrich uranium domestically and use American technology to develop its nuclear programme, in a deal that stops short of the safeguards typically required to prevent weapons proliferation.

The agreement, known as a 123 Agreement, does not include the gold-standard non-proliferation provisions found in comparable accords, nor does it require Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency's additional protocol, which grants inspectors broader powers to investigate undeclared nuclear activity. The deal must pass a 90-day congressional review before entering into force.

The Department of Energy described the pact as a peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement that will create a decades-long, multibillion-dollar partnership. However, President Donald Trump cast doubt on its future shortly after signing, saying the deal would be conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords to normalise ties with Israel — a step Riyadh has said it will not take without a credible roadmap to Palestinian statehood.

The agreement is understood to permit Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium domestically and reprocess spent nuclear fuel. Saudi Arabia has long maintained it will not sign the IAEA's Additional Protocol, citing national sovereignty — a position that analysts say aligns with the current US administration's scepticism of intergovernmental bodies.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has previously stated that the kingdom intends to use its domestic uranium resources across the entire nuclear fuel cycle and ultimately export uranium products. Some experts question whether a nuclear programme is necessary given Saudi Arabia's existing energy assets.

The timing of the agreement raises additional questions as the US - Iran conflict, which was based on Trump's insistence on preventing Iranian nuclear weapons development, continues. 

Gulf states have explored nuclear energy for decades, but only the UAE has operationalised a plant. The Barakah facility in Abu Dhabi, which came online in 2020, now supplies around a quarter of the country's electricity, though a drone strike in May damaged an electrical generator just outside its inner perimeter.

The UAE's free trade negotiations with the European Union are advancing more slowly than talks with other partners, with the bloc's insistence on including non-trade issues identified as the key obstacle, the country's foreign trade minister has said.

The seventh round of negotiations with the EU has concluded, minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi said this week, adding that the EU's approach of linking trade deals to corporate sustainability reporting and labour standards "will not work with us." Several other countries, including the US, have raised similar objections to the EU's stance.

"The slow pace stems from the EU insisting on including non-trade matters," Al Zeyoudi said, a position that has drawn criticism from multiple trading partners engaged in separate negotiations with Brussels.

The comments came as Al Zeyoudi confirmed the UAE is continuing talks with at least 20 countries on comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPAs). Negotiations with Rwanda, Ghana and Zambia have reached their final stages, while talks with Bangladesh and Peru are making good progress.

The UAE has concluded 37 CEPAs to date, 18 of which are already in force. Non-oil foreign trade rose 13% year on year in the first half of 2026 to $517 billion, despite four months of geopolitical disruption stemming from the US-Israeli war with Iran. Non-oil trade with fully implemented CEPA partners reached $82.7 billion, including $52.8 billion in imports and $18 billion in non-oil exports.

Al Zeyoudi also said the UAE is working to develop logistics infrastructure and trade corridors to strengthen resilience against global supply chain disruptions.

Yemen's Houthi militia has declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening to cut off a critical oil shipping route at a moment when the Strait of Hormuz is already severely disrupted.

The Iran-backed group announced the move in a televised address, framing it as retaliation for what it described as Saudi Arabia's "oppressive siege" on Yemen, including blockades on Houthi-held ports. "The Yemeni Armed Forces declare a maritime embargo against the criminal Saudi enemy, based on the equation of 'an eye for an eye', effective immediately," the group said.

With Bab al-Mandeb being Saudi Arabia's gateway to the Asian market, experts warn that the costs of forcing ships to reroute will be astronomical.

More than 7 million barrels of oil per day — around 7% of global trade — passed through Bab al-Mandab, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, in June, according to data from Kpler. EOS has identified five Saudi-flagged vessels in the Gulf of Aden heading towards the strait and another five moving down the Red Sea.

The blockade declaration compounds existing disruption to global energy flows. Before the US-Iran war began on February 28, around 20 million barrels per day — a fifth of the world's oil supply — transited the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic recovered partially after Washington and Tehran struck a preliminary deal in mid-June but has since slowed sharply following a new round of strikes across the Gulf. The Hormuz disruption had already pushed Saudi Arabia to increase exports via its Red Sea port of Yanbu, shipments that now face their own complications.

Crude futures, which briefly topped $90 a barrel on Monday, settled at $88.27 following the announcement, while the US West Texas Intermediate benchmark edged down to $82.11. Prices steadied after mediators put a proposal to Iran for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reviving last month's interim deal.

The Houthi move comes days after the group fired missiles at Abha airport in southern Saudi Arabia, breaking a truce in place since 2022. The Houthis said the strike was a response to a Saudi bombardment of Sanaa airport.

Analysts said the announcement alone could have significant consequences regardless of whether ships are actually attacked. Most analysts believe that even if no ships were attacked in the Red Sea, the announcement alone is likely to disrupt shipping and create uncertainty.

The Houthis previously barred US, Israeli and UK ships from Bab al-Mandab in 2023, later expanding their targeting to vessels calling at Israeli ports. Saudi Arabia's blockade of Houthi-held Yemen, imposed in 2017, has been described by the United Nations as a contributor to severe humanitarian conditions in the country. Reports last week indicated that Tehran had asked the Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Red Sea if the US struck Iranian power infrastructure.

With the signing of the memorandum of understanding in June, the US war in Iran was expected to ostensibly wind down. It has not, and from recent developments, the situation is looking far worse than what one would have expected a few days earlier. 

Yahya Saree, spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed forces, announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, effectively immediately, asserting that the Bab al-Mandeb Strait will be closed to Saudi maritime traffic. 

The strait, which sat at the heart of the global shipping landscape, now finds itself at the centre of the headlines. 

What are the key things to know about Bab al-Mandeb and why does it hold relevance in the geopolitical chessboard?

• The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a narrow martime chokepoint that connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Aden.

• It is a 20-mile-wide, 70-mile-long strait with the countries of Eritrea and Djibouti to the west and Yemen on its eastern edge. 

• It gain further prominence after the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, enabling intercontinental sea trade between Asia and Europe through the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. 

• The Strait owes its name to the perils of navigating the constricted waterway. The Arabic name Bab el Mandeb means Gate of Tears or Gate of Grief. 

• Bab el-Mandeb Strait accounts for about one-tenth of seaborne oil trade, making it the third busiest chokepoint in global oil trade after the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz. 

• Bab al-Mandeb is essential to Asia-Europe trade as the alternate Cape of Good Hope route increases transport times, fuel consumption, carbon emissions and insurance premiums. 

• An average of 9.3 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum liquids transited the waterway each day in 2023, before slipping to 4.1 million barrels per day in 2024 and 4.2 million bpd in the first half of 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

• The closure of Bab al-Mandeb along with a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could put a quarter of the world’s oil supply out of commission. 

Turkish exports to the Gulf region jumped 41% year on year to $2.6 billion in June, as easing conflict boosted demand and buyers turned to Turkey to replace goods previously sourced from disrupted Chinese supply chains.

Shipments to GCC member states alone topped $826 million, up 35%, according to data from the Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM). Saudi Arabia was the largest GCC buyer, importing $425 million of Turkish goods — a 117% year-on-year increase — followed by the UAE at $295 million and Kuwait at $34.7 million, marginally ahead of Qatar.

"We anticipate that, should lasting peace be secured, a much more positive picture will emerge in the second half of the year," said Mustafa Gültepe, TIM president, adding that the current growth rate could be maintained or increased in coming months.

The shift away from Chinese suppliers was a key driver of the increase. "Supplies from China to Gulf countries was largely halted with the war, so naturally they turned to us for goods," said Ayhan Zeytinoğlu, chairman of the Chamber of Industry in the northwestern province of Kocaeli. "While our export focus is Europe, the rise in June is good news, especially as some Gulf countries only started working with us over the past few years. In this current environment, we could be seeing monthly export revenues from the region increase further."

Jewellery was the single largest product category in GCC-bound shipments at $106 million, followed by chemical products at $69 million and pulses and cereals at $59 million.

The GCC figures were outpaced by Turkish exports to Iraq and Iran, which together accounted for more than $1 billion in June — up 26% and 64% respectively on the same month last year. For war-damaged Iran, metals, dried foods and chemical products were among the most in-demand Turkish goods.

Renewed hostilities, however, remain a risk. TIM's optimism for the second half of the year is conditional on a durable peace settlement, with the potential for conflict to again disrupt trade flows in the months ahead.

Iraq recorded a fiscal deficit of $5 billion in the first four months of 2026 after the Iran war severely curtailed oil export revenues, heaping pressure on the new government to pass a budget it has yet to approve.

Spending over the period stood at $28.2 billion against revenues of $23.2 billion, according to the finance ministry. Oil revenues accounted for $19.4 billion of total income, with the remainder coming from customs duties and government fees. Civil servant wages were the single largest item of expenditure at $15.3 billion — more than half of all spending.

"There is a pressing need for the new government to work to release a full budget because the delay will hurt growth and projects," said Nabil Al-Marsoomi, an economics professor at Basra University. "The absence of a budget limits the government's ability to confront the financial crisis, as its approval provides legal cover for internal and external borrowing, as well as liquidity management through the central bank."

The revenue shortfall stems directly from the disruption to oil exports caused by Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which left Iraq pumping as little as a third of the roughly 3.4 million barrels per day on which last year's budget was based. The government has been spending at a monthly average of just over 8% of last year's total expenditure as a result.

Parliament has submitted a proposal for an emergency budget of between $14.9 billion and $22.4 billion to keep government offices running and protect already-awarded contracts. However, the cabinet of Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi, who took office in mid-May, has held only a handful of meetings and has yet to make a decision on a new budget.

OPEC has forecast global oil demand will climb from 105 million barrels per day in 2025 to 113 million bpd by 2030, calling for annual investment of more than $700 billion in the sector to meet long-term needs.

The projections were published in the group's 2026 World Oil Outlook, launched at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna. The report sees oil demand rising to 119 million bpd by 2035 and 124 million bpd by 2050, with no peak in sight. Overall global energy demand is projected to rise 23% by 2050, driven by expanding economies in India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, as well as policy shifts in the US and Europe expected to favour continued oil consumption.

"For oil alone, investments of $17.7 trillion from 2026 to 2050 — or over $700 billion per annum — are needed to meet long-term demand," said OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, adding that the scale of global energy needs requires sustained investment across all energy sources and technologies.

The outlook lands at a volatile moment for energy markets. The Iran war earlier this year pushed oil prices as high as $120 a barrel in March, while a peace agreement announced by US President Donald Trump this week sent prices sharply lower. Brent crude was trading at $79.42 a barrel on Friday.

The report also noted a broader shift in the global energy policy landscape, with increased emphasis on energy security and affordability driving policy adjustments expected to support oil demand in the medium and long term.

The findings come as OPEC navigates a period of internal change. The UAE announced its departure from both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ grouping in April.